Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan look to Iranian on energy

Thursday, May 31, 2012
Asia-Plus (9 Apr. 2012)
BLUF: 
Given recurring energy shortages in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, media outlets in both countries welcomed their readiness to import natural gas from Iran. But the plan is currently a pipe dream in light of geopolitical, security and logistical obstacles.
OBSERVED: 
Kyrgyz and Tajik media welcomed the readiness of their respective governments to partake in a new pipeline project that would allow them to import natural gas from Iran. Iran hopes to export gas via a new pipeline through Afghanistan, to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and onward to China. Quoting Abdulhussein Bayat from the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) and the Iranian Ambassador to Tajikistan Ali Asgar Sherdust, Kyrgyz and Tajik media outlets stressed that negotiations on gas supplies were to start in the nearest future. Iran, Tajikistan and Afghanistan signed a relevant agreement on building oil, gas and water transportation infrastructure during a meeting on March 25, 2012 in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

A Kyrgyz energy expert, Rasul Umbetaliev, commented on the pipeline and noted how Iran and China were the most interested parties. According to him, most of the exports would be destined for China, while Kyrgyzstan, as a transit country, would be lucky to receive its share. That supply would help reduce Kyrgyzstan’s current dependence on gas imports from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Dependence on Uzbek gas was problematic for both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as Uzbekistan routinely interrupted supplies to both countries over payment disputes and and other bilateral political and economic differences.

The initiator of the pipeline project was Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon, whose country faced near economic paralysis as a result of gas interruptions from Uzbekistan in April 2012. According to Tajik media, Iran stood ready to help Tajikistan overcome these recurring energy crises if the necessary infrastructure could be built. Citing cultural, linguistic and religious links between the two countries, an independent Tajik journalist, Pairav Chorshanbiev, highlighted how Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reacted to Tajikistan’s energy crisis in April by promptly authorizing emergency fuel supplies. According to Chorshanbiev, Iran pledged its readiness to provide any assistance given Tajikistan’s energy needs. At the same time, there was a sense of wariness about the project’s viability among local observers in light of a call to Central Asian countries to stop cooperation and cut relations with Iran by the US Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asian Affairs, Robert Blake, during his visit to Tajikistan at the end of March 2012.

ASSESSMENT: 
Importing gas from Iran in order to lessen their reliance on gas from Uzbekistan would be beneficial to both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan given complicated relations between Uzbekistan and both governments. Lessening their dependence could also begin simplifying relations with a country marked by genera distrust and fraught with issues such as water and border disputes (delineation, visas, and landmines). Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan see Iran as an increasingly important partner for economic cooperation. For example, according to the Tajik minister of economic development, Sharif Rakhimzoda, Iranian investment in Tajikistan’s private sector was 15 million USD in 2011.
The natural gas pipeline idea, however, is not viable in the short term because US sanctions against Iran are a barrier to building the required infrastructure. Although Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon champions the idea, he is hamstrung by economic and political dependence on US support and cannot risk a hostile response from Washington. Despite deepening cultural, economic and political ties in recent years, Tajikistan has maintained an arms length from Iran given that it has refused to remove visa requirements between the two countries and dragged its feet on creating a joint Persian-language television channel. In addition, it actively exported coal to Afghanistan at a time of domestic energy shortage, which stopped only after Uzbekistan cut off gas supplies in April 2012.
At present, the main obstacle are existential security problems and general lawlessness in Afghanistan, through which Iranian gas would need to flow to Central Asia and China. The pipeline logistics are complicated also by difficult regional terrain, including mountainous and seismically-sensitive areas. As the leader and main sponsor, Iran will not have the financial wherewithal to implement such a large project in light of tightening economic sanctions.