What do Russians expect from Putin's third term?

Russia | Political Stability and Governance

Monday, May 14, 2012

BLUF:

As Russia watched Vladimir Putin return to the Kremlin for a third presidential term, Russian media commented on the state of national politics, the challenges facing the "new" leader, and opposition to his continued rule.

OBSERVED:

The official Rossiisskaya Gazeta (RG) offered readers a description of inaugural day’s main events. One article began by highlighting former President Dmitry Medvedev’s final acts in office, which were aimed at protecting the "constitutional rights and freedoms of the country's citizens." In the meantime, the author wrote, President-elect Vladimir Putin was in his office “carrying out the duties of the head of government” even as people gathered for his inauguration in the Kremlin palace. According to RG, an unnamed television commentator reported that, as Putin later headed there to be sworn in, his Mercedes “moved through the streets of the capital accompanied by birdsong.” During the ceremony, Putin reportedly said that Russia’s interests, security, and prosperity were always his first priority and that “service to the Fatherland” was the meaning of his life. Dmitry Medvedev stated that the beginning of a new presidential term was “always the beginning of a new stage in the life and history of Russia.”

Kommersant interviewed people from political, financial, business, and artistic circles, asking them what they expected from this "new stage." Some of the positive expectations included further modernization, development of the Far East, and the same kind of breakthrough experienced during Putin's first term. It was acknowledged that he would have it harder this time, because Russian civil society was stronger. Another person expected “a fourth term” but cautioned that this would only be possible if Putin could avoid having his third term become a repeat of the stagnant 18-year-long Leonid Brezhnev era.

Others had a much more negative outlook. The assistant leader of Just Russia, Oksana Dmitrieva, evidently believed that Putin was already on his way to his own Brezhnev moment, saying that “no one expects anything to come from stagnation.” Duma Deputy Sergey Petrov told Kommersant he feared that the business climate would worsen, because Putin has a “20th century understanding of economics.” A writer foresaw even more pressure on the mass media, which he expected would be “seriously warned” at the very least. Moskovsky Komsomolets (MK) journalist Mikhail Rostovsky asked whether “our new-old president” could do what needed to be done to keep Russia from falling behind “in global economic and geopolitical competition.” Rostovsky thought the new president might truly understand the challenges he faced, and that he “sincerely wants to transform Russia, change it for the better.” The question, according to the author, was whether Putin was willing to sacrifice some of his personal power to allow a long overdue and sorely needed strengthening of Russia’s political institutions.

Both MK and the opposition Novaya Gazeta (NG) pointed out the fact that Putin traveled to his inauguration ceremony on streets that were completely empty. For Rostovsky, this was a “powerful symbol” of Russian politics circa 2012. He said that, even though the constitution stipulates that power resides in the Russian people, they have actually been given the role of observers, and “their place is in front of the television.” NG relayed what the foreign press had to say on those empty streets on the day of Putin’s “coronation.” Die Welt reportedly said that “‘the elected president of all Russians,’ as state television referred to him, saw on his way not people greeting him, but a mass of special police forces.” According to NG, Britain’s Guardian wrote the same, adding that Putin “made his way to the Kremlin silently and alone. Three state television channels did not mention the hundreds of anti-Putin demonstrators” in the city trying to outwit the police forces. And as the new president’s guests at the Kremlin enjoyed their “five thousand bottles of champagne, vodka, and caviar,” the clashes continued on the streets.

ASSESSMENT:

By showing both members of the tandem hard at work just before the inauguration, RG was saying the country was in the capable hands of no-nonsense leaders. For any Russian who lived through the 1990’s, this image will still evoke a favorable comparison with that of the erratic, unhealthy Boris Yeltsin. The comment about the singing birds was another brushstroke in this cheerful picture. Beginning the article on the subject of President Dmitry Medvedev and his achievements was likely an effort to show respect to the man whose person and record in office would be eclipsed by those of Vladimir Putin, especially on inauguration day. This image of stability was in sharp contrast to the anti-Putin protests continuing in Moscow’s streets.

Popular attitudes have been rather reserved toward the opposition and anti-Putin protestors that emerged after the 2011 parliamentary election. They are seen as wealthy inhabitants of metropolitan cities. (The New York Times, in fact, has described some protestors as “hipsters” in “mink coats and designer jeans.”) In addition, Levada Center polls demonstrated that, for the most part, Russians remain skeptical toward the opposition, as it rarely goes beyond criticism to some constructive action. On the official level, along with a few mocking remarks, protestors were perceived as threats to the security of other citizens. The Kremlin’s initial reaction to the protestors was rather surprised, as it was used to dealing with demands that did not go beyond social guarantees, such us fixing utility prices and raising pensions. The demand for political participation and fair elections was a new issue. Nevertheless, the Kremlin reshuffling ahead of the March election and political reforms (open government, gubernatorial election and political party registration), aimed at creating a more open society, attested to the understanding of political elites about the critical role played by a relatively small number of protestors.

The presidential election in March demonstrated vast popular support for Putin that was especially high among the elder generation of voters and those living in Russia’s remote regions. His popularity comes from the view that he brought stability to Russia after the chaotic 1990’s. Russian citizens hold vivid memories of sweeping economic reforms of that time, as many lost their life-savings and jobs. However, even after the inauguration it is not clear whether President Putin stands a chance for long-term political survival amid the growing criticism and mistrust from the population.

References:

The chosen one enters power

Rossiiskaya Gazeta

08 May 2012

What do you expect from a third Putin term?

Kommersant

05 May 2012

Hello again!

Moskovsky Komsomolets

07 May 2012

He came to the Kremlin on streets cleared of people

Novaya Gazeta