Bahrain

Iran's Inimical Rhetoric: Targeting The Strait Of Hormuz

Bahrain | Iran | Iraq | Kuwait | Oman | Saudi Arabia | UAE
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Gulf News (7 July 2012)
BLUF: 
While Iran flexed its military muscles and repeated its "customary" threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries strengthened their preparedness by establishing alternative oil routes and their American ally deployed floating bases to the region.
OBSERVED: 
Escalating tension between Iran and the West, along with Iran's threatening rhetoric, continued to dominate the Emirati media. All press cited recent statements by Iranian military commanders who asserted their country's readiness and ability to retaliate against any aggressor. Chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, General Seyed Hassan Firuzabadi, was quoted as saying “a Shiite nation [Iran] acts reasonably and would not approve the interruption of a waterway through which 40 percent of the world’s energy supply passes, unless our interests are seriously threatened.” Similarly, the aerospace commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, claimed “[Iranian] missiles are aimed at 35 US military bases in the Gulf Region as well as targets in Israel and are ready to be launched in case of any attack.” The same provocative statements were also heard from Iranian political leaders. According to recent reports, “Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee had drafted a bill calling for the Iranian military to stop oil tankers from shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz to those countries that support sanctions against Iran.”

Meanwhile, social media focused on the significant and steady American military reinforcement in the region since tensions between the West and Iran spiked last December over the latter's controversial nuclear program. At the same time, media reported that “the UAE started exporting Murban blend crude oil through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.” UAE semi-official Al Ittihad quoted Emirati Energy Minister Mohammad Bin Dhaen Al Hameli as saying that “the pipeline can transport up to 1.4 million barrels of oil a day and this number might be increased to 1.8 million barrels per day, which means that about 70 percent of the UAE’s oil production can be exported via Fujairah.” US President Barack Obama praised the UAE’s step to ensure the reliable and safe delivery of crude oil during his 27 June meeting with General Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi crown prince and deputy supreme commander of the UAE armed forces.

Nevertheless, an editorial in the UAE’s independent Gulf News indicated that “the new pipeline in the UAE and others may dilute the threat to crude oil exports but the petroleum products exports especially from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain and the import requirements of Iraq will remain at risk.” Another editorial emphasized that “the opening of the oil pipeline across the UAE is important and a timely, strategic investment given the increasing political and security concerns around Iran and other oil-producing countries surrounding the Arabian Gulf.” In this context, writers in the social media and press lashed out at Iran’s “intervention in the GCC states’ affairs, bellicose statements, military maneuvers and saber-rattling warnings.” In an editorial entitled “The Strait of Hormuz — again,” Saadallah Al Fathi, former head of the Energy Studies Department at the OPEC Secretariat, emphasized that “Arabian Gulf countries depend on oil exports revenue for their livelihood and this is irreplaceable in the foreseeable future. Therefore, closing the Strait would be tantamount to declaring war on the region’s countries and many oil and gas importing countries worldwide.” Prominent Kuwaiti writer Professor Abdullah Al Shayji shared the same view, describing Iran’s threat to close Hormuz as “unacceptable intimidation.” However, Shayji warned that “the cold war between the GCC states and Iran … is impacting the whole region and pushing it towards the abyss.”

ASSESSMENT: 
Since 2008 the Gulf countries have considered many scenarios in preparation for the possible closing of the strategic Hormuz passageway. The continuation and escalation of Iranian threats to close it have spurred the Gulf countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to speed up work on finding alternative export routes. While the UAE built its own Hormuz bypass pipeline, Saudi Arabia expanded its export routes and reopened the old Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA) and reconditioned it to carry and export more of its crude from Red Sea terminals. Gulf countries have collectively adopted constructive measures to deal with Iran’s recurring provocations and undermine its leverage. Still, Gulf countries should consider the potential for an Iranian attack on these alternative routes, which would likely provoke an all-out conflict in the region.
The imposition of "crippling" international sanctions on Iran always prompts immediate fury and harsh ripostes from several Iranian military and political leaders. Moreover, international pressure on Iran is customarily followed by a show of Iranian combat power, such as massive military drills or missile launches. These threats and maneuvers create a media firestorm in all Gulf countries, which slammed the Iranian regime for using an international passageway as a choke point to strangle the Gulf countries’ economic lifeblood.
Most analysts believe that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be “an act of shooting oneself in the foot,” because this politically suicidal move would harm its own interests, since it exports 90 percent of its oil through Hormuz. Moreover, the closure would deprive Iran’s main ally China of oil exports. Thus, renewed threats to close the vital passageway are only aimed at asserting Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions. However, Iranian threats continue to raise tensions significantly in the global energy markets, as well as prices in the global maritime trade, especially oil and gas supplies. At the same time, analysts suggest that Iran’s ability to block the strait would be limited and temporary. According to Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey, Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz “for a period of time.” However, “should Iran try to close Hormuz, the US would take action and reopen it.” In this context, US precautionary measures against Iran’s threats were recently reinforced through considerable military might consisting of minesweepers, warships, F-22 and F-15C stealth fighter jets, and an amphibious base to launch special forces attacks.
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US and GCC Relations

Bahrain | Iran | Kuwait | Oman | PAN-ARAB | Qatar | Saudi Arabia | UAE | United States | Regional Military Cooperation | Strategic Theatre Missile Programs
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Al Riyadh (1 Apr. 2012)
BLUF: 
Many writers welcome a new multilateral “partnership” between US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counties, but widespread ambivalence, including questions about the US proposal for a regional missile defense system against Iran, is evident in regional press following the first GCC-US Strategic Cooperation Forum.
OBSERVED: 
The first ministerial meeting of the GCC-US Strategic Cooperation Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on 31 March, generated extensive coverage in the Pan-Arab press. Most reporting in the region applauded the US' new multilateral approach toward the group and all highlighted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's emphasis on the US' "rock solid and unwavering" commitment to the six GCC allies--Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, the Saudi director of International Economic Relations at the GCC, wrote that the new GCC-US Strategic Forum was an indication that the US recognized its need to address "nuclear weapons proliferation, spread of ballistic missiles, terrorism, and maritime risks in waters of the Gulf and Arabian Sea" collectively, and that it "represents a new beginning for a historical partnership." Kuwaiti Professor Dr. Abdullah Al Shayji wrote of a similar "strategic shift in US policy" in his article "The Gulf and US…From Allies to Partners," published in UAE's Al Ittihad.

Chief among the economic and security cooperation items discussed, Secretary Clinton's message about the US "priority to help the GCC build a regional missile defense architecture" against a looming ballistic missile threat from Iran took center stage. Outlets noted Iran's predictable rejection of what it called the "American-Zionist project." Advising Arab "friends" to avoid participating "in such a game," Iran's Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said the missile defense project would "undermine regional security." Similarly, the head of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, called the US plan to establish a missile shield "a source of tension."

Gulf officials, however, described the GCC-US forum outcomes as "positive and constructive." Responding to the Iranian criticism, for example, the Kuwaiti Al Anba newspaper reported that, "Kuwaiti diplomatic and military sources rejected Vahidi's warning and will not allow any party to interfere in its internal matters." The sources added, "Kuwait considers its security an integral part of the GCC countries' security and stability." The paper, however, quoted other diplomatic sources as saying, "The missile shield plan in the Gulf area remains only an idea that is under negotiations between the concerned parties aimed at promoting additional security for the Gulf States amid continued growing tensions and threats in the area."

More ambivalent, commenting on the forum, prominent Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor said, "I support our collaboration with the big powers, but we should not allow them to control our future." Entitled "Enough of leaving security to others," Habtoor's opinion piece in the UAE's Gulf News indicated that super powers "operate out of self-interest," and he wondered, "Haven't we learned any lessons from the US-led invasion of Iraq, which we were powerless to prevent? Besides being a humiliation, there is danger in relying on another country for our defense. What happens if and when we disagree in the future? We will either have to bow our heads--or be vulnerable to a protector-turned-foe." More pointedly, "America is [a country] We Loathe ... [but] We Need!!," wrote Deputy Editor-in-Chief Yousef Al Kowaileet of the Saudi Al Riyadh. While noting that the US was "the most influential force in the political, economic and technical arenas," Kowaileet cautioned Arabs that, "America is an enemy that must be dealt with cautiously while understanding its plans and aims."

ASSESSMENT: 
For decades, cooperation between the US and GCC governments has been strong, but dependent on a country-by-country approach. To the region, the GCC-US Strategic Cooperation Forum indicates a new US strategy, based on multilateral cooperation with the Gulf States rather than a bilateral one. The strategy, consistent with the multilateral approach in the region taken by the US to great effect during the Libya crisis, is clearly designed to mitigate the Iranian nuclear threat and to fortify the overall effort to isolate Iran and Syria.
Yet, such collective cooperation faces serious challenges. According to a lead Gulf News editorial, “the reality is that the GCC has not yet developed its institutions enough to act on its own. The GCC remains a grouping of six nations with shared aims, rather than an organized bloc.”

Despite Iran’s warning against implementing a missile defense shield in the region, several Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, have already purchased Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile defense systems from the US. Gulf countries, however, have limited defensive operational capabilities and lack a fully integrated and coordinated air missile defense shield. In addition, GCC states have not adopted a clear-cut unified policy toward their Iranian neighbor.

More difficult is the deep-seated persistent distrust of the US, apprehension about a greater regional conflict with Iran, and a regional political impetus to demonstrate defiant independence from the US and other western interests. Nationalist writers and some Gulf officials agree on the necessity of the region to become "dependent on themselves” for their defense. Ambivalence in the commentary, however, reveals grudging recognition that the region may ironically need US help to do so. The US multilateral approach, in conjunction with a corresponding GCC show of unity, might help mitigate the stigma seen by some there of cooperating with the US.

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